Investors anticipate divergence of US, European rates
That is one of the key findings of the latest BofA Merrill Lynch monthly fund manager survey, which also reports that belief in Europe’s stocks has started to recover after the heavily negative sentiment expressed in the August survey, although managers are concerned about the impact of the Scottish independence referendum on UK equities.
Nearly half (48%) of investors are expecting the first US rate hike in nine years to take place in the second quarter of 2015, up from 38% last month. Accordingly, the proportion of respondents backing the US dollar to strengthen against the euro and yen recorded a survey high of 86%.
In the wake of the decision to lower rates to close to zero, asset allocators have increased exposure to eurozone equities. Eighteen per cent are overweight the region, up from 13% a month ago. Eleven per cent of investors most want to overweight Europe in the next 12 months, up from 4% in August.
As opinion polls indicated the referendum for Scottish independence was too close to call, negativity towards UK stocks deepened, with 16% of respondents underweight UK equities.
“This month’s survey highlights the end of US and European central bank consensus – and as the first Fed rate hike since 2006 draws closer, we will see a new US dollar bull market and movement out of bonds,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch global research.
“While investors welcome the ECB’s actions, the region is still lacking its growth mojo. It will take time for growth to materialise from policy action and there are no guarantees it will,” added Manish Kabra, European equity and quantitative strategist.
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