UBS sees more trouble ahead for Aberdeen AM
Aberdeen Asset Management, the fund manager recently relegated from the FTSE 100, has more trouble ahead according to Swiss bank UBS.
Analyst Michael Werner expects the firm's full-year 2016 revenues to be down 19% on last year's levels, driving overall earnings 35% lower.
"We believe Aberdeen's equity franchise, which accounted for 60% of revenues 2015 will likely continue to see outflows until its track record improves," he said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
The firm's overexposure to emerging markets has hit performance, with eight main funds all underperforming on a three-year basis.
Shares in Aberdeen have slumped 40% over the past twelve months.
Weak commodity prices, fears over China's economy and weaker global growth has dampened appetite for assets outside of developed nations.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is down nearly 10% over the last year.
UBS' Werner hopes to see more organic growth from Aberdeen over the long run, rather than the firm's traditional expansion method of acquisitions.
According to UBS, 98% (£257bn) of Aberdeen’s AUM growth since 2004 has been through acquisitions while outflows over the same period totalled £52bn.
Organic growth will be vital to maintaining the firm’s investor base, Werner adds, given that further expense savings from acquisitions would be difficult to achieve.
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