Analysts at investment bank Citi have kept their 60% probability score of Hillary Clinton winning November’s US presidential election.

With five weeks to go until voting takes place, Clinton now leads national polls by 3.8 percentage points, up 1.5pp since the TV debate against Republican nominee Donald Trump at the end of September.

“Clinton’s personal favorability numbers have slightly improved, suggesting poll movements are more than noise,” Tina Fordham, Citi’s chief global political analyst, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, she claims that markets are only “partially pricing in” a Trump victory.

“The earlier rally in USD/MXN (Mexican peso) was the clearest indication that Trump risk was rising, but since the first debate this currency pair has rolled over,” Fordham adds.

The analyst’s latest US election update also flags the heightened risk of disruptions to the campaign and outcome in what she calls an “unusual election”.

These include a further health scare, major scandal, terrorist attack, game-changing gaffe or a release of documents from WikiLeaks that affects the outcome.  

A possible scenario according to Fordham, due to fragmentation in the race, is that no candidate gains the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win, taking the choice to the House of Representatives.  

Fordham says the key challenges for Clinton include gaining the millennial vote and inspiring turnout amongst her constituents, with “status quo” voters typically less motivated to turn up at the polls than “change” voters.

The second presidential debate between Trump and Clinton will be on October 9th.

While seeing record-high viewership, Fordham says the practical impact of debates is usually limited when it comes to voter behavior.

“This time around, with 15%-20% saying they are undecided or will vote for a third-party candidate (compared 12% at this stage in 2012), they could matter more,” she adds.