Fund managers cite EU break-up and Trump win as top risks
Fears of an EU break-up, a bond crash and a Republican winning the White House are the most commonly-cited tail risks among fund managers at present.
That’s according to the latest fund manager survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which shows a bearish sentiment among investors.
A greater number of those polled are hoarding cash, up from 5.5% in September to 5.8% this month – levels not seen since immediately after the Brexit vote.
Allocations to US and Eurozone equities is unchanged from last month, while exposure to UK equities has fallen to a net 27% underweight from net 24%.
Emerging market equity allocations have risen to the highest overweight in three-and-a-half years, from 24% last month to 31% in October.
Meanwhile, investors are no longer underweight in commodities for the first time since December 2012.
“This month’s cash levels indicate that investors are bearish, with fears of an EU break-up, a bond crash and Republicans winning the White House jangling nerves,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Manish Kabra, European equity quantitative strategist at the firm, added: “Although investors see an EU-disintegration as a big tail risk, European fund managers surveyed are more optimistic about the economic growth outlook for the Eurozone and expect stronger inflation.”
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