Top 12 investment banks’ revenue to fall 5%
The
world’s top investment banks are facing a third straight year of revenue
losses, according to a new paper that shows solid performance by the banks’
fixed income, currency and commodities units failing to cancel out losses in
equities and investment banking.
Coalition’s
IB Index report released on Thursday estimated total 2016 revenue for the
largest 12 banks at $152.2bn, which is 5% down on the $160.2bn in 2015.
The paper
said 2016 will see the third consecutive year of lower revenue after a 3% fall
in 2015 compared with 2014.
The
forecast came as data firm Coalition said investment bank revenue for the nine
months to the end of September was down 7% on the same period last year to
$119.6bn.
The
Coalition Index tracks the earnings of Bank of America Merrill Lynch; Barclays;
BNP Paribas; Citibank; Credit Suisse; Deutsche Bank; Goldman Sachs; HSBC; JP
Morgan; Morgan Stanley; Societe Generale; and UBS.
Their
nine month performance reflects mixed fortunes in the banks’ main functions.
The 12
firms’ fixed income, currency and commodities (FICC) businesses were up 2% to
$59.1bn from $58.1bn in the nine months to the end of September.
The
improvement in FICC revenues reflected a 24% increase in G10 rates activity and
a 5% rise in credit business as well as losses in commodities, foreign exchange
and emerging markets.
The rates
performance was linked to ongoing performance in structured rates and options,
and increased client activity driven by second quarter 2016 political events
and strong demand for dollar structured notes from clients in Asia.
Equity
derivatives saw in the nine months to the end of September a 27% drop in
revenue to $9.9 billion from $13.6 billion in the same period last year.
The
decline was on the back of lower client demand for structured products combined
with a sharp drop in trading performance, taking its toll on results in Europe
and Asia.
Prime
services also declined for the first time since 2010 but maintained a stable
performance due to re-pricing.
Investment
bank division revenue suffered a decline of 12% from $30.8bn to $27.2bn, mainly
due to lower equity capital markets (ECM) revenues, and reduced merger and
acquisition activity. ECM saw a 39% drop from $7.4bn to $4.5bn, on the back of
decreased initial public offering and follow-on activity, especially in Europe,
Middle East and Africa.
In terms
of the headcount, banks have continued to reduce their front office numbers
during the first nine months of the year, down 4% to 533,000 compared to last
year’s 556,000.
This
year’s total represents a 16% drop since 2012 when employees numbered 633,000.
FICC has been the most impacted business, suffering an 8% drop in numbers from
188,000 in late 2015 to 173,000 this year.
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