Top 12 investment banks’ revenue to fall 5%

Top 12 investment banks’ revenue to fall 5%

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The world’s top investment banks are facing a third straight year of revenue losses, according to a new paper that shows solid performance by the banks’ fixed income, currency and commodities units failing to cancel out losses in equities and investment banking.

Coalition’s IB Index report released on Thursday estimated total 2016 revenue for the largest 12 banks at $152.2bn, which is 5% down on the $160.2bn in 2015.

The paper said 2016 will see the third consecutive year of lower revenue after a 3% fall in 2015 compared with 2014.

The forecast came as data firm Coalition said investment bank revenue for the nine months to the end of September was down 7% on the same period last year to $119.6bn.

The Coalition Index tracks the earnings of Bank of America Merrill Lynch; Barclays; BNP Paribas; Citibank; Credit Suisse; Deutsche Bank; Goldman Sachs; HSBC; JP Morgan; Morgan Stanley; Societe Generale; and UBS.

Their nine month performance reflects mixed fortunes in the banks’ main functions.

The 12 firms’ fixed income, currency and commodities (FICC) businesses were up 2% to $59.1bn from $58.1bn in the nine months to the end of September.

The improvement in FICC revenues reflected a 24% increase in G10 rates activity and a 5% rise in credit business as well as losses in commodities, foreign exchange and emerging markets.

The rates performance was linked to ongoing performance in structured rates and options, and increased client activity driven by second quarter 2016 political events and strong demand for dollar structured notes from clients in Asia.

Equity derivatives saw in the nine months to the end of September a 27% drop in revenue to $9.9 billion from $13.6 billion in the same period last year.

The decline was on the back of lower client demand for structured products combined with a sharp drop in trading performance, taking its toll on results in Europe and Asia.

Prime services also declined for the first time since 2010 but maintained a stable performance due to re-pricing.

Investment bank division revenue suffered a decline of 12% from $30.8bn to $27.2bn, mainly due to lower equity capital markets (ECM) revenues, and reduced merger and acquisition activity. ECM saw a 39% drop from $7.4bn to $4.5bn, on the back of decreased initial public offering and follow-on activity, especially in Europe, Middle East and Africa.

In terms of the headcount, banks have continued to reduce their front office numbers during the first nine months of the year, down 4% to 533,000 compared to last year’s 556,000.

This year’s total represents a 16% drop since 2012 when employees numbered 633,000. FICC has been the most impacted business, suffering an 8% drop in numbers from 188,000 in late 2015 to 173,000 this year.

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