Stock and bond flows at polar opposites after Trump win

Stock and bond flows at polar opposites after Trump win

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Flows into stock and bond funds are at polar opposites in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s US election victory.

Investors poured $28bn in equity funds this week, the largest weekly sum in two years.

Meanwhile bond outflows totaled $18bn, levels not seen in three-and-a-half years.

The moves break a recent streak in which the two asset classes have been strongly correlated.

Share prices have risen since Trump’s win on optimism that stronger growth will result in higher corporate profits.

However investors started selling bonds, spooked by the prospect of higher inflation and higher interest rates.

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch described the flows as an “astounding contrast”.

“Trump’s victory marked moment investors started to position for bond bear market,” Michael Hartnett, the bank’s chief investment strategist wrote on Friday.

Bank of America stats also show US-based equity ETFs took in $34bn in the past week, their largest weekly inflows on record.

Financial funds also saw record amounts of new money flowing in, $7.2bn in total.

Emerging market debt redemptions were at new highs, muni bonds experienced the biggest outflows in three years; and Treasury outflows reach levels last seen 12 months ago.

“We think markets are right to re-price interest rates higher under the new US political configuration, but do not expect a further violent bond sell-off in early 2017,” Barclays analyst Ajay Rajadhyaksha wrote in a note to clients on Friday.

“Instead, safe-haven bond yields should grind higher in the years to come, driven by rising inflation and gradually normalizing monetary policy.”

At the same time, Rajadhyaksha added that it is hard to feel excited about equities.

"Sluggish economic growth has been accompanied by correspondingly sluggish growth in corporate earnings."

For the US, the analyst said the outlook for earnings is helped by a "probable corporate tax cut and potential regulatory relief" under a Trump administration.

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