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Scottish yes vote would 'cause turmoil'

27 August 2014


Rowan Dartington Signature’s managing director predicts weakness in sterling and damage to companies based in Scotland if the region gains independence

The economic reality of a 'yes’ vote result for the Scottish Independence Referendum would cause money market turmoil, weakness in sterling and damage to companies based in Scotland, according to Rowan Dartington Signature’s managing director, Guy Stephens.

He predicts the formation of a pegged currency arrangement and a transfer of power from Westminster, with on-going haggling over oil revenues, Trident and welfare liabilities.

"Let us hope that economic sense prevails and that market turmoil is avoided as few have considered the unthinkable up to now," said Stephens.

"If Scotland was already independent, it would most likely be looking for a solution to replace its diminishing oil revenues which involved a closer union with its neighbours - somewhat similar to Dubai who have been building a global leisure and property industry and have had to be bailed out by Abu Dhabi. Pursuit of the opposite is counter-intuitive."

Even if a 'no’ vote is returned, Stephens points out that it is likely that some degree of political change will come out of this which moves some powers to Edinburgh.

The comments follow the latest TV head-to-head debate on the Scottish Independence Referendum in which Alex Salmond showed a strong performance.

Stephens suggested that in the debate Salmond had side stepped important political issues.

"This may work in the short term as the man on the street doesn't really have a concern on the currency as long as he has something to spend, which for most is not a lot anyway.

"For many, the downside is difficult to see and the upside is all about localised control from a locally elected and accountable government benefiting from revenue from geographically local assets. The nationalist arguments are easy to make and understand."


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