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Scottish yes vote would 'cause turmoil'
27 August 2014
Rowan Dartington Signature’s managing director predicts weakness in sterling and damage to companies based in Scotland if the region gains independence
The economic reality of a 'yes’ vote result for
the Scottish Independence Referendum would cause money market
turmoil, weakness in sterling and damage to companies based in
Scotland, according to Rowan Dartington
Signature’s managing director, Guy Stephens.
He predicts the formation of a pegged currency arrangement and
a transfer of power from Westminster, with on-going haggling
over oil revenues, Trident and welfare liabilities.
"Let us hope that economic sense prevails and that market
turmoil is avoided as few have considered the unthinkable up to
now," said Stephens.
"If Scotland was already independent, it would most likely be
looking for a solution to replace its diminishing oil revenues
which involved a closer union with its neighbours - somewhat
similar to Dubai who have been building a global leisure and
property industry and have had to be bailed out by Abu Dhabi.
Pursuit of the opposite is counter-intuitive."
Even if a 'no’ vote is returned, Stephens points
out that it is likely that some degree of political change will
come out of this which moves some powers to Edinburgh.
The comments follow the latest TV head-to-head debate on the
Scottish Independence Referendum in which Alex Salmond showed a
Stephens suggested that in the debate Salmond had side stepped
important political issues.
"This may work in the short term as the man on the street
doesn't really have a concern on the currency as long as he has
something to spend, which for most is not a lot anyway.
"For many, the downside is difficult to see and the upside is
all about localised control from a locally elected and
accountable government benefiting from revenue from
geographically local assets. The nationalist arguments are easy
to make and understand."