UK infrastructure investment drives growth
Increased
infrastructure investment would drive economic growth and bolster the U.K.'s
competitiveness, according to Standard & Poor’s (S&P).
S&P expects real GDP to grow by 2% to 3% per year over the next
several years, yet it estimates that each additional £1 spent on infrastructure
in one year (in real terms) would lift real GDP by £1.90 over a three-year
period.
It also projects a strong effect on job creation, with each extra 1% of GDP spent on infrastructure adding over 200,000 jobs in that year.
“The benefits of infrastructure investment do not stop at the short-term boost
to output and employment,” said Jean-Michel Six, chief economist for Emea at
S&P.
“Over the longer term, improving infrastructure can enhance the private
sector's productivity, for instance, by reducing transport and communication
costs. And the resulting economic gains can be significant.”
S&P’s analysis shows that the UK’s current infrastructure
investment deficit is at least £60bn, and as much as £200bn if countries with the best infrastructure, such as Switzerland, are
used as a benchmark. But, at a time when government debt is rising and the
country's fiscal position is constrained, the event’s panel discussion focused
on how such investment could be financed.
“Fiscal pressure is likely to constrain the UK government's ability to finance
new infrastructure projects,” said Aurelie Hariton-Fardad, director of infrastructure finance ratings at S&P. “We therefore believe
that a significant portion of funding for infrastructure investment will come
from the private sector.”
“Among European institutional investors, demand is strong and growing – data
suggests that by the end of the third quarter this year, as much as $27bn
had been raised by infrastructure funds,” said Michael Wilkins, managing director and head of infrastructure at S&P.
Wilkins explained that the rating agency has redesigned its criteria for
assessing project finance debt in an attempt to bridge the gap between demand
and supply: “Solving this stalemate relies on detailed risk analysis in order
to increase transparency on asset performance."
John Llewellyn, partner at Llewelyn Consulting agreed that one of the constraints on investment is the limited
number and sporadic nature of projects. He added: “This has been caused by a
lack of political commitment to particular projects over the long-term,
regulatory instability and fragmentation of the market across different levels
of government.”
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