RBC downgrades group of investment banks

RBC downgrades group of investment banks

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Analysts at RBC Capital Markets downgraded a group of investment banks on Monday after recent statistics showed investment banking fees fell to their lowest level since the financial crisis in the first quarter.

Forecasts were lowered for UBS, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley by equity analysts at RBC, who described the first three months of 2016 as a “tough quarter across the board” for investment banks.

Last week a report by Dealogic showed that fees from investment banking operations fell by an average of 27% year-on-year for global players between January and March, the lowest first quarter reading since 2009.

UBS and Deutsche Bank were cited as the worst performers, with fees down 44% and 43% respectively.

“We expect this to be an especially disappointing Q1 for investment banks,” said Fiona Swaffield, analyst at RBC.  “We forecast investment banking returns to be very low to negative, especially for those in restructuring mode.”

Of the top nine global investment banks, the best performer was Morgan Stanley, but with fees down 26% year-on-year in Q1 this was broadly in line with the industry average.

The fees for the top nine global investment banks were down on average 34% with equity capital markets being the weakest area.

In  North America, the biggest losers of market share in compared to 2015 year-to-date are Deutsche Bank, Barclays and Goldman Sachs, the biggest gains in market share are for Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse and UBS.

In EMEA the biggest losers of market share so far in are Deutsche Bank, UBS, Credit Suisse and Citi, with the biggest gains in market share going to Bank of America and J.P. Morgan.

Markets across the globe tumbled to start the year as investors fled risky assets, such as equity and high-yield bonds, hitting the top lines of investment banks.

Tougher capital rules along with settlements for Libor, Forex and US sanctions have also been putting a strain on performance.

Last month Credit Suisse announced plans to shrink of investment banking platform, cutting thousands of jobs in the process.

Other players, including Barclays, have already performed significant deleveraging.

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