Jefferies positive after Q3 inflows for asset managers

Jefferies positive after Q3 inflows for asset managers

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Analysts at Jefferies have decided to unwind much of their post-Brexit bearishness for traditional institutional asset managers.

After the UK’s vote to leave the EU in June, Jefferies downgraded estimates on a range of fund managers due to fears that a decision making hiatus would sap inflows.

However, equity analyst Phil Dobbin says that while high inflows are unsustainable, the third quarter has given him confidence to upgrade estimates and reverse the negative sentiment.

"Jupiter reported outstanding net inflows at £789m or an annualised 8.5% in the third quarter," Dobbin notes. "Man Group reported net inflows for the quarter of $1.3bn, well above Q2 levels of $0.4bn."

"Ashmore, after several quarters of outflows, delivered flat flows. Like peers, performance was strong in the quarter."

Schroders will not publish its Q3 figures until November, but Dobbin says that he is unwinding some of his post-Brexit caution on the company's stock. 

At £301.4bn, Aberdeen Asset Management’s Q3 AUM was ahead of his £292.9bn forecast, driven by stronger markets and FX, which together added £17.5bn to AUM.

Meanwhile, Henderson disclosed in its Janus merger document that assets under management as of end August had been positively impacted by markets and FX and stood at £100bn, which was already ahead of the year end consensus of £96.2bn.

“In an environment where uncertainty is high; there is an ongoing competition review by the FCA and regulatory capapital requirements are edging up for the sector, we prefer the safety and certainty that diversified high quality names like Jupiter and Schroders provide,” Dobbin added in his research note.


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