Short sellers stay on the sidelines as US election nears
Average demand to short US stocks has been flat in the month heading into next week’s election, according to IHS Markit statistics.
Short interest across S&P 500 is flat at 2.8% of shares outstanding, in line with the levels seen over the summer.
“US equities have experienced more than their fair share of volatility in the weeks leading up to next Tuesday’s election, but market jitters have yet to stir short sellers as the demand to borrow S&P 500 shares has remained relatively flat over the last few months,” wrote analyst Simon Colvin.
Hillary Clinton holds a narrow three-point edge over Donald Trump according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll.
Trump has closed in on Clinton’s lead over the past week leading shares in Asia down to a seven-week low, Europe’s Stoxx 600 index reached its lowest level since the summer and the dollar has been on the defensive.
Analysts at Citi reckon a Trump win could spark an immediate sell-off of up to 5% for the S&P 500 and slower growth or even recession for the US.
IHS Markit data suggests telecommunication firms have continued to attract short sellers as demand to borrow share across the sector jumped by 8% in the last month to 7.2% of shares outstanding on average.
Transportation stocks have seen the largest jump in average short interest leading up to earnings after average demand to borrow the sector’s shares jumped by 22% in the last four weeks.
Energy stocks, which were the high conviction short play of the opening months of the year, have continued to ward off short sellers heading into the election as demand to borrow their shares has fallen by 9% in the last month.
According to Citi's research, certain energy subsectors, particularly those confronted by environmental challenges, would perform well if Trump wins the race to the White House
"The energy sector, coal mining, possibly chemical manufacturers and utilities would do better under less environmental scrutiny versus a Clinton win, which would be better for more environmentally friendly firms," Citi analysts wrote on Friday.
However, they added that other energy subsectors may actually prefer the opposite outcome.
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