Investors brace for US election result

Investors brace for US election result

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Voters in the US are heading to the polls to elect a new President to succeed Barack Obama in one of the most unconventional races to the White House in modern American history.

Hillary Clinton has a 90% chance of defeating Donald Trump, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation poll released on Monday.

However, Clinton’s lead has been cut in recent weeks as Republican Trump came back into reckoning after the FBI reopened email probe against the Democrat candidate.

This week the FBI ended its investigations in a dramatic last-minute announcement, indicating that nothing was found in the emails to warrant criminal charges against Clinton.

US and global equity markets rallied after favorable FBI comments on the Hillary email case.

All in all, a Clinton win is mostly seen as positive for risk assets. A Trump victory is anticipated to result in a global stock market slump.

The S&P 500 was flat halfway through Tuesday's trading session at 2,140. Gold futures flipped between small losses and gains.

Despite the outcome, the trajectory of both the US and global growth appears to be for lower growth and relatively low interest rate.

“Investments that produce solid yields or robust growth will most likely continue to be in favor regardless of the election outcome,” Mark Bogar, head of the global equity team at The Boston Company Asset Management wrote in a note to clients.

Experts at Alliance Bernstein said that while Trump and Clinton dominate the media cycle, there are much bigger influences on stock and bond markets; government finances, central bank policies, oil prices and currency changes are among them.

"Policy creation takes a while…and major change isn’t guaranteed. We believe fundamentals ultimately drive investment performance," said Allience Bernstien economists.

“The focus should be on enhancing performance with high-conviction insights and active positioning. It will be some time before the real implications of political change—or lack of it—become clear."

Analysts at Guardian Stockbrokers have taken a closer look at some of the sectors which could be impacted.

Healthcare

Hillary Clinton has voiced that as President she would regulate pricing in the drug market. Pharma and Biotech stocks, which have shown weakness recently, may come under renewed pressure in the event of a Clinton win.

According to Societe Generale, a Trump win would favour Pharma stocks as he has proposed to repeal Obamacare in his election campaign and replace it with a new set of healthcare reforms which include turning Medicaid into a "block grant" programme.

J.P. Morgan Cazenove has given an “Overweight” rating on the sector, citing that US political uncertainty is only a near-term drag and is unlikely to last.

Danske Bank expects Healthcare to outperform as it believes that Clinton would not be able to get a price control mechanism passed through Congress.

Energy

Donald Trump has stated that he plans to reduce regulation in oil & gas production, supporting growth in the sector. However, increased US supply would be negative for oil prices.

Meanwhile, Clinton is committed to cutting emissions and supports a big thrust on alternative energy over time.

JP Morgan Cazenove indicates that, Clinton’s election could be modestly negative for oil prices and positive for companies focused on alternative energy.

Within commodities, JP Morgan Cazenove is “Overweight” on the energy sector.

Societe Generale opines that Clinton might have a more interventionist approach than Obama in the Middle East, which could support oil prices, and the bank recommends a buy on stocks in the sector.

Financials

Republican leaders have historically been more moderate towards regulations in the sector. Possibility of tougher rules and tax changes by a potential Democratic sweep would present a headwind for financial sector stocks.

JP Morgan Cazenove has given an “Overweight” rating on the sector, as banks and insurance plays are a good hedge against rising yields.

Danske Bank expects financials likely to underperform, since they would face further regulation.

Infrastructure and manufacturing

Both candidates have expressed support for higher civil infrastructure spending. However, Trump has stood for a much more ambitious spending plan compared to Clinton.

This implies bigger opportunities for government work under Trump and companies leveraged to government spending would benefit.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump's idea of imposing tariffs on import of manufactured goods from China, Japan and Mexico present a headwind for companies deriving revenues from abroad.

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